含風(fēng)電場的發(fā)電系統(tǒng)旋轉(zhuǎn)備用優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型研究
任禹丞，陸彬，張馨升
東南大學(xué) 電氣工程學(xué)院，江蘇 南京 210096
摘 要：為研究風(fēng)電的隨機(jī)性和間歇性對電力系統(tǒng)調(diào)度計(jì)劃中旋轉(zhuǎn)備用的影響，建立風(fēng)電預(yù)測偏差的概率密度函數(shù)，將正態(tài)分布與拉普拉斯分布聯(lián)合，擬合風(fēng)電預(yù)測偏差的概率分布。在處理風(fēng)電預(yù)測與負(fù)荷預(yù)測的不確定性因素時(shí)，基于置信度確定了系統(tǒng)需要增加的旋轉(zhuǎn)備用容量，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立旋轉(zhuǎn)備用優(yōu)化調(diào)度模型。通過算例仿真分析，表明置信度可作為調(diào)整系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)性與可靠性的平衡因素，且文中模型的經(jīng)濟(jì)性優(yōu)于傳統(tǒng)等備用調(diào)度模型。
關(guān)鍵詞：風(fēng)電預(yù)測偏差；旋轉(zhuǎn)備用；置信度；等備用；聯(lián)合優(yōu)化
中圖分類號：TM614 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)示號：A 文章編號：1007-3175(2013)07-0005-05
Research on Optimal Scheduling Model of Generation and Spinning Reserve with Wind Farms
REN Yu-cheng, LU Bin, ZHANG Xin-sheng
School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Abstract: In order to consider the impact on spinning reserve and generation scheduling caused by the randomness and intermittence of wind power, this paper established the probability density function of the wind power forecast error, which combined mormal distribution with Laplace distribution to simulate the probability distribution of wind power forecast error. In dealing with the uncertainty of wind power and load forecast, confidence level was used to find the added spinning reserve capacity. Based on the total spinning reserve capacity of system, the optimal scheduling model of spinning reserve was built. The analysis of examples shows that confidence level could be the adjusting element of the reliability and economy of system, and the economy function of optimal scheduling model is better than traditional equal reserve scheduling model.
Key words: wind power forecast error; spinning reserve; confidence level; equal reserve; united optimization
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